• An importing state’s decision to transition from one arms supplier to another is based on cost-benefit judgements. A number of structural and practical variables raise the costs of seeking alternative sources of arms.
• The variables that increase the costs associated with transitioning from one arms supplier to another contribute to arms transfer dependency. These variables can range from issues related to international ideological alignments, challenges related to integrating incompatible capabilities, costs of adopting and sustaining new systems, readiness, or limited financial means.
• While states may pursue strategies to mitigate dependence, these strategies must be weighed against the benefits of closer alignment with an external patron.