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Author(s):
Lindsey Guenther Paul Musgrave
Journal
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Abstract

Cybersecurity poses new questions for old alliances. These questions emerge with special force in the case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Russian Federation wields substantial cyber capabilities, but NATO members have been ambivalent about stating what sorts of attacks would trigger the North Atlantic Treaty's Article 5 collective self-defense provisions. Nevertheless, NATO officials state that there are some attacks that would trigger Article 5. This leads to a puzzle: why would an explicit alliance guarantee designed to ensure collective defense against certain forms of attack be informally extended to include others? Because the policy of the United States toward such questions will likely be of great significance in determining NATO policy, we use a series of survey experiments to test American public opinion regarding support for defending allies and friendly countries against cyber operations. Respondents are likelier to support a response to an attack that causes fatalities and when the victim has a treaty alliance with the United States. In contrast, support falls if US participation is likely to provoke further retaliation or the target attacked is civilian rather than military. © 2022 The Author(s) (2022). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Studies Association.

Concluding remarks
This study offers one way of understanding how NATO alliance obligations may be understood in the era of cy-ber operations. We demonstrate that the American pub- lic takes a cautious view of its alliance commitments, but nevertheless believes that it has at least some continuing obligation to come to the aid of its allies in response to cyberattacks. We acknowledge limitations of our study. Perhaps larger-scale studies of public opinion conducted using probability-based sampling could yield different results, even if this may be less likely than skeptics would assume ( Coppock and McClellan 2019 ). Perhaps the transat- lantic alliance rests on particular socialization into beliefs about alliance solidarity that render elite viewpoints dif- ferent from the mass public’s perspective. If foreign policy is also insulated from public opinion, then our study may have less policy relevance than we claim (although note that at the limit, such a claim is equivalent to stating that US foreign policy is not just un- but anti- democratic). Eu- ropean (and Canadian) audiences may perceive these fac- tors much differently than American ones—and the other allies, too, have a vote. Nevertheless, we believe that this study illuminates an important set of emerging challenges and clarifies the basis of public support for and under- standing of NATO commitments. Our research points to clear paths for future work. Cross-country studies could offer valuable information about how other countries view their alliance obligations and how relative power and the severity of attack af- fect their calculations. Further research could also ex- plore whether the American public discriminates between powerful and less powerful allies, or between NATO and non-NATO allies (or even between formal allies and ma- jor US security partners such as Saudi Arabia or Israel), in determining what its commitments mean. In any event, such work should be carried out before more serious cy- ber scenarios manifest in real life.

Reference details

DOI
10.1093/jogss/ogac024
Resource type
Journal Article
Year of Publication
2022
ISSN Number
2057-3170
Publication Area
Cybersecurity and defense
Date Published
2022-11-01

How to cite this reference:

Guenther, L., & Musgrave, P. (2022). New Questions for an Old Alliance: NATO in Cyberspace and American Public Opinion. Oxford University Press (OUP). https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogac024 (Original work published)